Overall picks to win: 8-8 in Week 17 (173-82-1 for the season) Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 4-7 (103-64-1) Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-1 (70-18) Overall to cover the spread: 9-6-1 (130-117-9) Cover-the-spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 8-4-1 (107-93-8) Cover-the-spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-2 (23-23-1)

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 18 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Fifteen of the top 18 picks in the 2026 NFL Draft order changed hands in Week 17, including the No. 1 overall selection. Dan Parr runs through Round 1 and highlights each squad's five biggest needs.