The RBA’s forecasts suggest that the RBA is assuming a short-term neutral policy rate of just over 3% and a lower NAIRU of 4¼%. The RBA has marked down potential growth from 2¼% to 2% as it revised ...

We are mildly bearish on the dollar into 2026 as the Fed brings the policy rate down to neutral. We see risks skewed to the dollar’s downside should a more politically minded Fed take US real rates a ...