Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest... Can the yield curve still predict recessions? Two years ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve officially exited its prolonged inversion on Friday, Sept. 6. This marks the end of over two years when short-term yields were higher than those on long-term bonds — a ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...